Ali Larijani’s description of Iranian protesters as “urban groups with terrorist-like characteristics” has raised fears that the country is on the verge of a civil war. By accusing citizens of attacking military and police centers to obtain weapons, the government is setting the stage for a “total war” scenario inside the country’s borders. The Iranian government is bracing for a U.S. strike that they claim will be the “air support” for these internal “terrorists.”
This narrative is a classic defensive move used by regimes under siege. By labeling the opposition as “terrorists,” the clerical leadership can justify any level of violence, including the thousands of deaths already reported. They are bracing for a strike by first trying to “break public cohesion,” ensuring that the population is too afraid or too divided to support a foreign intervention.
The U.S. carrier deployment is specifically designed to target the leadership that is authorizing this internal violence. The goal is not to “destroy Iran’s social cohesion,” but to dismantle the security forces that are holding the country hostage. However, Larijani’s warning that this will lead to a “civil war” is a potent one, as many Iranians are indeed wary of the chaos that followed regime changes in neighboring countries.
Economically, the country is already a disaster zone, with 60% inflation making life impossible for these “urban groups.” The Iranian government is bracing for an attack while its people are starving, a combination that makes the “terrorist” label look like a desperate projection of the state’s own failures. The record fall of the stock market shows that even the regime’s supporters are losing faith in the “order” they are trying to protect.
As the USS Abraham Lincoln maneuvers in the Mediterranean, the fear of a “terrorist” uprising in Tehran is the regime’s greatest nightmare. The Iranian government is bracing for a strike that could turn their “urban groups” into a revolutionary force that finally ends their forty-seven-year rule.